1. Global Supply-Demand Dynamics: Biodiesel Regulations Shape Market Volatility

In 2023, the global glycerol market remains heavily influenced by biodiesel policies and palm oil supply chains. As a key byproduct of biodiesel production, glycerol supply is closely tied to crude oil prices and vegetable oil costs (e.g., palm oil, soybean oil).

· Southeast Asia Capacity Expansion: Major palm oil producers like Indonesia and Malaysia are accelerating biodiesel production, driving crude glycerol supply growth by 12% YoY (Statista). However, the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which restricts palm oil-based biodiesel imports, has redirected Southeast Asian crude glycerol exports to deep-processing markets such as India and China.

· European Market Tightening: The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and energy challenges have pushed regional refiners like BASF (Germany) and AkzoNobel (Netherlands) to prioritize food/pharmaceutical-grade glycerol, tightening industrial-grade supply and raising prices by 8-10% YoY.

2. Production Shift: China Strengthens Position as Global Refined Glycerol Hub

China’s cost-competitive epichlorohydrin-glycerol supply chain continues to dominate refined glycerol production. From January to September 2023, China imported 680,000 tons of glycerol (Customs data), up 15% YoY, with 60% sourced as crude glycerol from Southeast Asia.

· Domestic Technological Advancements: Companies like Jiangsu Longchang and Zhejiang Wumei have invested in supercritical CO₂ purification technology, achieving 98.5% crude-to-refined conversion rates. China now accounts for 22% of global food-grade glycerol exports.

· Policy-Driven Growth: Under China’s "Dual Carbon" goals, expanded used cooking oil (UCO)-based biodiesel production is improving byproduct glycerol quality, with UCO-derived supply projected to exceed 300,000 tons by 2024.

3. Diversified Applications: Green Chemistry Expands Demand

Glycerol, as a renewable platform chemical, is gaining traction in biobased materials and hydrogen energy:

1. Epichlorohydrin (ECH) Innovation: Companies like SABIC (Saudi Arabia) and Dow Chemical (U.S.) are advancing glycerol-to-ECH processes, reducing reliance on petroleum-based propylene. Glycerol-based ECH now represents 18% of global capacity.

2. Hydrogen Energy Breakthrough: A University of Tokyo team unveiled an 85%-efficient glycerol steam reforming method in August 2023, positioning glycerol as a potential hydrogen carrier for fuel cells.

3. Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Demand: Emerging markets (India, Southeast Asia) are driving 6.2% YoY growth in pharmaceutical-grade glycerol demand (Frost & Sullivan).

4. Regulatory and Trade Considerations

· EU Carbon Tariffs and Sustainability Standards: Since July 2023, the EU mandates lifecycle carbon data for imported glycerol, creating trade barriers for palm oil-linked crude glycerol due to deforestation concerns.

· U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Incentives: Tax credits for biobased materials under the IRA have boosted U.S. imports of sustainably certified glycerol, with Brazilian sugarcane-derived exports to the U.S. surging 30% YoY.

5. Pricing Trends and Outlook

As of October 2023, regional price disparities persist:

· Southeast Asia Crude Glycerol: FOB prices at $400–450/ton, down 5% since January due to oversupply.

· European Refined Glycerol: FD prices range from €1,200–1,350/ton, supported by energy costs and sustainability premiums.

· China Market: Refined glycerol (99.7% purity) in East China trades at CNY 7,800–8,200/ton, up 7% YoY.

Forecast: Over the next 2–3 years, the market will prioritize premiumization and decarbonization. Food/pharmaceutical-grade glycerol is expected to grow at a 5.8% CAGR (Grand View Research), while industrial-grade margins may face pressure from biodiesel policy fluctuations.